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The Endgame: Climate News - July 2025
- Thomas Panton
- Aug 4
- 6 min read
July laid bare both the acceleration and fragility of the climate transition.
We saw real-world execution: Europe’s solar output hit record highs, France added 1.4 GW of new PV to its grid, and AI’s climate applications moved from theory to impact. Long-duration storage entered strategic planning, and even the Vatican is going fully solar.
But we also saw the cracks: $22 billion in clean manufacturing projects cancelled across the U.S., a controversial €700 billion EU-US fossil energy deal, and signs that Arctic methane feedback loops are already active. Meanwhile, weather prediction systems are underfunded and overstretched - just as climate volatility accelerates.
This edition of The Endgame breaks down the real deployments, the systemic risks, and the signals reshaping industrial decarbonisation on both sides of the Atlantic.
The Good 👇🏻
🧠 AI is finally proving its emissions upside
New research from the Grantham Research Institute and Systemiq estimates that AI, when applied effectively in sectors like power, transport, and food, could cut global emissions by 3.2 to 5.4 billion tonnes CO₂e annually by 2035. That’s more than the entire footprint of the US power sector today.
Why it matters: Critically, these benefits outweigh the emissions from AI’s own growing energy footprint, including data centres. This isn’t just speculative. The study maps out five concrete impact areas - from grid management and alternative protein adoption to investment optimisation and climate adaptation. With the power, transport, and food sectors accounting for 50% of annual emissions, even modest AI-led efficiency gains in these systems could trigger economy-wide tipping points.
📍 UK-led research with global application
🔗 Source: Grantham Research Institute, Nature
🏡 France connects 1.4 GW of new solar to the grid in Q1
France added 1.4 GW of new solar capacity to its grid in the first quarter of 2025 - up from 1.1 GW during the same period last year. That brings total installed capacity to 26.77 GW, with over 57,000 new installations now generating power across the country.
Why it matters: This isn’t about targets or pipelines - it’s about infrastructure going live. Roughly 87% of Q1 installations were sub-9 kW systems, signalling accelerating adoption among households and SMEs. The country’s PV fleet generated 5.4 TWh in Q1 alone, now covering nearly 4% of national electricity demand. With solar output up 38% year-on-year, this is what real decarbonisation at scale looks like. And great for our own portco, Ensol 💪🏻
📍 Europe
🔗 Source: Renewables Now
☀️ Europe’s solar output hits 68 TWh in Q1 - up 32% year-on-year
Utility-scale solar farms across Europe generated 68 terawatt-hours of electricity in Q1 2025 - a 32% jump from the same period last year, according to new data from Ember. Germany, France, Poland, and the UK each saw solar generation rise by more than 25%, with solar now covering up to 11% of Germany’s grid electricity.
Why it matters: This is real capacity, connected and producing - not projections or targets. The growth isn’t just in southern Europe: markets like Poland are now showing material generation, proving solar’s viability even in lower-irradiance regions. As fossil baseload gets displaced and solar takes on a bigger share of national demand curves, this momentum helps unlock further grid upgrades, procurement shifts, and private capital confidence.
📍 Europe
🔗 Source: Reuters
The Challenges 👇🏻
💸 EU-US energy pact could derail Europe's climate goals
A €700 billion EU-US energy deal promises to triple American oil, gas, and nuclear imports into Europe over the next three years. But climate analysts and the European Environmental Bureau warn the agreement is “fundamentally incompatible” with the EU’s 2030 targets.
Why it matters: This is not just a diplomatic handshake - it’s a structural bet on long-lived fossil infrastructure. The deal arrives as European gas demand continues to fall, grid-based renewables are surging, and climate regulations are tightening.
Locking in volatile LNG and slow-build nuclear risks stranding capital, displacing clean alternatives, and undermining Europe’s energy sovereignty just as momentum was building.
📍 Europe
🔗 Source: Offshore Energy
🏭 US clean manufacturing pullbacks gather pace
More than $22 billion in clean manufacturing and energy infrastructure projects were cancelled or downsized in the first half of 2025, according to new data from E2. The wave of pullbacks affected 35 major developments - including EV plants, battery factories, and grid manufacturing sites - across Colorado, Michigan, New York, Indiana, and Oregon. Over 16,500 jobs have been lost this year alone.
Why it matters: This isn’t just volatility. It’s reversal. The collapse of federal tax credit certainty has created a hostile environment for climate manufacturing in the US - especially in Republican districts, which accounted for over half the losses. Flagship projects by GM, Toyota, and Canoo are being shelved or redirected toward combustion vehicle platforms. The climate investment boom won’t last without execution continuity - and right now, we’re watching industrial momentum unravel in real time.
📍 United States
🔗 Source: E2 Clean Economy Tracker
🌡 Svalbard thaw reveals methane feedback loop in motion
Scientists in Svalbard reported “shocking” soil thaw conditions - during what should have been the peak of Arctic winter. In some areas, permafrost was so degraded they could dig samples with spoons. Those samples revealed thriving methane-producing microbes, active in what were once frozen winter layers.
Why it matters: Once permafrost thaws, organic matter decomposes and releases methane - a potent greenhouse gas that accelerates warming, which in turn melts more permafrost. That’s a self-reinforcing feedback loop that can’t be reversed on human time scales.
Researchers say this is no longer “next-generation” climate risk. This is the new Arctic. And it’s unfolding fast.
📍 Europe
🔗 Source: Grist
Ones to Watch 👇🏻
🔋 Storage enters the boardroom agenda
World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) launched a new brief calling on corporates and governments to integrate long-duration energy storage (LDES) directly into their energy strategies. LDES allows clean power to be stored and dispatched when demand peaks - solving the intermittency challenge of renewables and unlocking firmed, flexible supply.
Why it matters: Electrification without storage is a false promise. If we want grids that are clean, resilient, and cost-efficient, storage needs to be co-located - not tacked on. And this is no longer just a technical conversation. WBCSD is urging business leaders, procurement teams, and policymakers to treat LDES as core infrastructure.
📍Europe
🔗 Source: WBCSD
🛰 AI and public infrastructure are trying to catch up for climate modeling
Simultaneous heat domes and flash floods across Europe and North America are pushing weather systems past their limits. With each degree of warming, forecast accuracy drops - just as demand for hyperlocal, AI-powered forecasting is spiking across energy, agriculture, and emergency planning. In the U.S., that need is colliding with cuts to NOAA and the National Weather Service - putting the future of public climate infrastructure at risk.
Why it matters: Accurate forecasts aren’t just nice to have - they’re the foundation of climate adaptation. Without the baseline data infrastructure provided by national agencies like NOAA and ECMWF, AI-native tools can’t scale. This is a growing risk - and a massive opportunity.
📍 Europe & North America
🔗 Source: ClimateBase
🌞 The Vatican goes solar…yes, really!
Italy has approved a plan for the Vatican to build a 430-hectare solar farm north of Rome. The project will fully power Vatican City and donate surplus energy to the local community - making the Holy See the world’s first carbon-neutral state. Agricultural use of the land will be preserved, and the Vatican will import panels tax-free, though without subsidies.
Why it matters: This is more than symbolism. It’s a historic fossil-to-solar transition from one of the world’s oldest institutions - on territory long associated with electromagnetic pollution. It also shows how state-scale energy transitions can pair clean energy, land-use continuity, and cross-border cooperation - without green premiums.
📍 Europe
🔗 Source: Associated Press
📘 Final Word
Climate is no longer just a regulatory or reputation issue.
It’s a grid integration problem, a manufacturing slowdown, a data infrastructure challenge - and increasingly, a question of institutional resilience.
From storage mandates to forecasting breakdowns, July reminded us that the transition will be won not just by what we build, but by how well we adapt.
Stay sharp. Stay optimistic. The momentum is real.
Follow The Endgame for the signals that matter most in the race to decarbonise
