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The Endgame: Climate News - September 2025
- Thomas Panton
- Oct 6
- 5 min read
September exposed the delicate balance between resilience and risk in the climate transition.
From record crop yields and major EU infrastructure funding to cross-sector pivots toward dual-use innovation, this month offered a snapshot of progress - and pressure. Global supply chains are adapting, clean energy is (slowly) integrating across borders, and the electric vehicle race in Europe is intensifying.
But mounting system strain is visible everywhere: stalled U.S. climate programs, tepid emissions targets from China, and a brutal reassessment of global carbon capture viability.
This edition of The Endgame unpacks what’s accelerating, what’s cracking, and what could redefine the map altogether.
The Good 👇🏻
🌾 Global crop yields hit all-time highs
The USDA projects all-time high harvests for staples like corn, wheat, and soybeans in its latest global food outlook - even as climate risks mount. Gains are being linked to smarter farming practices, biotech advances, and infrastructure upgrades.
Why it matters: Agricultural collapse has long been treated as inevitable in climate models. These record yields don’t erase the risk - but they show that adaptation and innovation are bending the curve, at least for now. The challenge is ensuring resilience keeps pace as climate shocks intensify.
🔋 Europe ramps up EV battery investment
The European Commission and EIB are joining forces with a new €200m InvestEU guarantee, €1B in grants, and €1.8B of EIB capital to strengthen Europe’s EV battery value chain. Support targets advanced materials, recycling, and manufacturing scale-up - not mining.
Why it matters: Europe’s battery strategy is shifting from regulation to capital deployment. By de-risking innovation and mobilising private money, this package isn’t just about catching up with China - it’s about proving Europe can finance its own industrial backbone at scale.
🔗 Source: European Commission
🌍 €76.3 million committed to cross-border renewables & heating grids in EU
The EU’s CEF Energy programme has awarded €76.3 million to advance five new cross-border renewable projects, including a pilot to link district heating between Poland and Germany. Other projects span offshore wind in the Baltics, onshore wind in Latvia-Lithuania, and groundwork for 10 GW of floating offshore wind in Portugal.
Why it matters: Unlike climate targets on paper, these projects hard-wire clean energy across borders. By funding heat, wind, and grid integration together, the EU is testing how to scale the physical backbone of a connected, decarbonised energy system.
🔗 Source: European Commission
The Challenges 👇🏻
🏛 U.S. government shutdown threatens climate programs
The federal government shut down after Congress failed to reach a budget deal, forcing furloughs across agencies like the EPA and DOE. Clean tech R&D, permitting, and enforcement are expected to face delays, while only “essential” services remain open.
Why it matters: Climate policy depends on working institutions. Every day of gridlock risks slowing the rollout of clean energy projects, data reporting, and enforcement - reminding us that political dysfunction is itself a decarbonisation bottleneck.
🔗 CNN
🪨 Carbon capture estimates dramatically slashed
New research suggests safe global CO₂ storage capacity is just ~1,500Gt - far below prior estimates of 40,000Gt - casting doubt on CCS-heavy net-zero plans. The risk of earthquakes, engineering failures or territorial disputes significantly reduces viable storage capacity, whilst limiting global warming to 1.5C would require sequestering 8.7 GT of CO₂ annually.
Why it matters:
If true, this shatters assumptions underpinning many 2050 pathways. CCS remains part of the toolbox - but the “dump it underground later” model just lost credibility.
🌫 China’s new emissions targets seen as “too timid” but setting a precedent
While China committed to a 40% cut in carbon intensity by 2035, experts say the pledge lacks ambition and doesn’t align with a 1.5°C pathway. However, China has often "under-promised and over-delivered" on its climate targets, and this commitment anchors the world’s largest emitter on a path where clean-tech defines economic leadership.
Why it matters: As the world’s largest emitter, China’s targets set the tone. Over delivering might sound great but sometimes its the initial signals which matter most, and until the country is bolder in its public targets other are less likely to be as bold in their own.
🔗 Source: Euronews
Ones to Watch 👇🏻
🎯 Climate tech out, dual-use in?
At The Drop conference in Malmö, the investor chatter was less about net-zero and more about “dual-use” startups - technologies serving both civilian and defense markets. From seafloor mapping tools now pitched for port security to drones repurposed beyond agriculture, climate VCs are widening their scope under the banner of resilience.
Why it matters: Redirecting capital toward defense-linked tech could sideline core decarbonisation efforts just as scale is needed most. But dual-use also opens new procurement channels and faster adoption paths - raising the stakes on whether this shift strengthens climate resilience or dilutes it.
🔗 Source: Sifted
🌐 Brazil proposes global carbon pricing pact at COP30
Brazil’s Ministry of Finance has proposed an “Open Coalition” to align major economies like the EU and China around a shared emissions cap-and-trade system. The plan includes fairer quotas for poorer countries and would redirect part of revenues toward adaptation finance.
Why it matters: If it sticks, this could mark the first real attempt at a global carbon market - reshaping compliance rules and trade dynamics. But aligning blocs on border adjustments and governance could just as easily ignite disputes as unlock cooperation.
🔗 Source: COP30 - Brazil
💻 DOE issues RFP for AI-powered data centres on Oak Ridge site
The U.S. Department of Energy has issued a request for proposals to build and power AI data centers on the Oak Ridge Reservation - including on-site clean energy generation and storage. Applicants must fund, build, and operate projects under long-term leases, with proposals due by December.
Why it matters: This is one of the first public-lands efforts to hardwire AI compute into energy infrastructure. If done right, Oak Ridge could become a blueprint for co-locating large-scale compute with dedicated clean power - reshaping the AI x energy interface.
🔗 Source: U.S. Department of Energy
📘 Final Word
September brought new clarity: resilience is real, but it’s not evenly distributed.
We saw signs of durable progress - in food systems, electrification, and infrastructure - but also the limits of outdated assumptions. As CCS pathways narrow and global governance stumbles, the future will be shaped by those who act fast, adjust early, and scale with precision.
The transition is still winnable. But only if we keep learning, keep building, and stop assuming the map is finished.
Stay sharp. Stay optimistic. The momentum is real.
