The Endgame: Climate News - October 2025
- Thomas Panton
- 4 days ago
- 4 min read
Signals of strength and strain in the climate transition.
October captured the tension between momentum and maturity in climate tech.
Across Europe, cities and corporates are proving that practical decarbonisation can scale - but the economic strain of transition is sometimes hard to ignore. The shift from ambition to execution is revealing where policy, capital, and competitiveness collide.
This edition of The Endgame looks at what’s accelerating, what’s stalling, and what’s quietly reshaping the next decade of climate markets.
The Good 👇🏻
🏙 103 European cities reach climate-neutrality milestone
The EU’s Mission for Climate-Neutral and Smart Cities just labelled 103 cities across Europe as “on the path to net-zero by 2030.” It’s the strongest signal yet that municipal climate planning is becoming operational - from retrofitting to mobility and grid infrastructure.
Why it matters: Urban emissions represent 70% of Europe’s total. When cities lead, markets follow. These programs are shifting from targets to tenders - turning climate strategy into shovel-ready projects.
🔗 Source: European Commission
⚗️ UK-Ireland hydrogen trade study models 175mt CO₂ savings
A new research paper has modelled offshore green hydrogen trade between the UK and Ireland that could avoid 175 million tonnes CO₂ emissions annually across the region. The study suggests cross-border hydrogen corridors may rival electricity inter-connectors in economic and climate impact.
Why it matters: The next phase of decarbonisation will hinge on infrastructure integration, not just generation. Trading hydrogen at scale could open new markets for maritime and industrial use while reducing grid bottlenecks.
🔗 Source: Cornell University
🌍 Polluting tech reaches “point of no return”
New research from the University of Exeter describes a “new reality” - once clean technologies outcompete fossil incumbents, reverting becomes economically unviable. The analysis marks the first time this dynamic has been formally modelled across multiple energy systems.
Why it matters: This isn’t just progress - it’s permanence. When clean tech wins the cost curve, it locks in systemic change. Industrial decarbonisation is finally being driven by market physics, not policy pledges.
🔗 Source: Exeter University
The Challenges 👇🏻
📜 Corporates push back on EU climate law
TotalEnergies, Siemens, and several major European companies have urged Brussels to abolish the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive, claiming the law adds complexity without improving outcomes. The letter reflects mounting friction between climate ambition and business execution.
Why it matters: Policy backlash rarely means disengagement - it signals growing tension between compliance and competitiveness. For policymakers, it’s a warning: regulation must enable innovation, not stifle it.
🔗 Source: Reuters
🛢 Germany expands domestic gas despite climate targets
Germany has approved new natural-gas exploration projects in the Wadden Sea - despite its legally binding 2045 net-zero target. The decision follows pressure to secure short-term energy resilience, drawing criticism from climate groups and EU partners.
Why it matters: Europe’s largest industrial base is still balancing energy security with decarbonisation. The move underscores a wider truth: transition pathways remain politically fragile when energy costs bite.
🔗 Source: The Guardian
🇺🇸 US skips UN climate talks as COP30 begins in Brazil
High-level US officials will not attend the upcoming UN COP30 climate summit in Belém, Brazil - a meeting already set to host fewer than half the world’s heads of state. The decision, confirmed by the White House, follows President Trump’s public dismissal of the conference as a “green scam” and his emphasis on bilateral “energy dominance” trade deals.
Why it matters: The absence of the world’s largest economy at the negotiating table undermines global coordination just as emissions diplomacy reaches a critical stage. It signals a pivot away from multilateral climate cooperation toward transactional energy alliances - raising questions about who now leads the global transition narrative.
🔗 Source: Bloomberg
Ones to Watch 👇🏻
💶 ETS2 set to reshape EU carbon pricing
The EU has proposed price controls for its new ETS2 system, covering transport and heating fuels from 2027. The mechanism would cap extreme carbon-price volatility while extending emissions trading to millions of households and small businesses.
Why it matters: If implemented, this will be one of the largest regulatory shifts in global carbon markets - a real-world test of how to balance climate ambition with social stability.
🔗 Source: Reuters
🔬 10 critical technologies to watch
The Society of Chemical Industry has identified ten technologies with the potential to materially disrupt emissions trajectories - including green ammonia, carbon-mineralisation, and circular materials chemistry. Several are already moving from lab to pilot stage in Europe and North America.
Why it matters: The shortlist gives a roadmap for investors and policymakers alike. It’s a reminder that breakthrough science remains one of the strongest levers for industrial decarbonisation.
🔗 Source: Society of Chemical Industry
🫱🏼🫲🏾 G7 energy ministers set to align on industrial decarbonisation
The agenda for the upcoming G7 Energy and Climate Ministers’ Meeting includes major cooperation initiatives on clean hydrogen, industrial heat, and critical minerals. With both the EU and U.S. at the table, alignment here could shape cross-border funding and trade incentives for years.
Why it matters: Global alignment on industrial decarbonisation could finally replace fragmented policy with interoperable frameworks - unlocking faster, larger-scale adoption.
🔗 Source: European Commission
📘 Final Word
October showed us that the climate transition is moving from early optimism to operational realism.
The good news: cost curves are locking in cleaner systems faster than expected.
The bad news: markets and institutions aren’t evolving at the same speed.
Industrial decarbonisation is now less about invention and more about integration - building the physical and financial systems that can scale.
At Endgame Capital, we see this as a defining moment.
The transition is still accelerating - but the bottlenecks have shifted.
The winners of the next decade will be those who solve for both.
Stay sharp. Stay pragmatic. The momentum is still real.
